A sports fan opens a game page and sees “Yes 60%” next to a team’s name, with a payout of $167. It looks familiar, but it isn’t a point spread or a guarantee. It’s the price of an event contract.
This guide explains how event contracts work, how to read a price, what trading costs and when you can exit. It also covers what Fanatics Markets offers and what to check before you decide whether it fits you.
All examples are hypothetical teaching numbers, shown before fees and taxes.
Key Takeaways
- An event contract is a position on a Yes-or-No question about a real-world outcome. It settles at $1 if your side is correct and $0 if it isn’t.
- Game cards show each side’s price, plus what a $100 position would pay if that side wins.
- A displayed price is a quoted price, not a guarantee of the result.
- Trading fees, the gap between buy and sell prices and early-exit conditions all affect your result.
- You can lose the full amount you put into a position.
What a Prediction Market Is
A prediction market is a venue where people trade contracts tied to whether a specific event will happen. The CFTC describes event contracts as tied to defined outcomes, so the exact question matters most.
Each contract has a question, a trading window, rules and a settlement source. The settlement source is the official record used to decide the answer, such as a league’s final result.
Buying a contract gives you a position on that question. It doesn’t give you any ownership in a team, league or company.
How an Event Contract Works
The question. Every contract asks something that resolves Yes or No, such as “Will Team A win Saturday’s game?”
The position. A Yes position pays if the answer is Yes. A No position pays if the answer is No.
The settlement. When the event ends, each correct contract settles at $1 and each incorrect contract at $0. Rules for postponed, suspended or cancelled events vary, so read them for each contract.
How to Read a Price
Game cards show each side’s price and the payout on a $100 position. Depending on the view, a price can appear as a percentage or in cents, and 60% and 60¢ mean the same thing.
The payout equals $100 divided by the price. So a Yes side priced at 60% shows a payout of about $167 on $100, and that $167 includes your original $100.
It’s tempting to read 60% as a 60% chance of winning. Treat it as a quoted price instead. The Yes and No quotes usually add up to slightly more than 100%, because the quote includes the gap between buying and selling prices.
Prices move as news arrives, such as an injury report, a lineup change or a weather delay. Timing shapes how fans read sports history, too: the Chicago Bulls’ six championships in the 1990s began in 1991, a year after the end of the first marriage covered in this look at Scottie Pippen’s early years.
| Scenario ($100 position at 60%) | Payout | Result before fees and taxes |
| Yes is correct | About $167 | About $67 gain |
| Yes is incorrect | $0 | $100 loss |
High prices still carry full risk. At 90%, a $100 position pays about $111 if correct, a gain of about $11. If it’s wrong, you lose the full $100.
What Trading Costs
The displayed payout doesn’t appear to net out trading fees, so check costs separately.
Under its fee schedule effective September 2, 2026, Fanatics Markets charges a trading fee of $0.00034 to $0.02 per contract, on each contract bought and sold. Fees are highest when a contract trades near the middle of its range and lower near either end, with a $0.01 minimum on single-contract orders.
The platform also shows a total cost before you confirm an order. Compare that figure with your own math before you place it.
Three other terms are worth knowing:
- Bid: The highest price a buyer will currently pay.
- Ask: The lowest price a seller will currently accept.
- Spread: The gap between the two. Buying and immediately selling would cost you that difference, before fees.
Holding to Settlement or Exiting Early
After your order fills, you can hold until the event settles or try to sell while trading is open.
An early sale only works if another participant will buy at your price. If no one does, your order may fill only partly or not at all, so check what actually executed.
Using the $100 position at 60%, a move to 75% would make it worth about $125, a gain of about $25 before fees. A drop to 40% would make it worth about $67, a loss of about $33.
Decide before you buy whether you’re comfortable holding to settlement if no buyer appears.
What Sets the Platform Apart
Fanatics Markets is part of the Fanatics ecosystem, which also includes Fanatics.com, Fanatics Collect and Topps.
The platform leads with sports, covering leagues and major events. It also lists markets on politics, economic events, companies, crypto and culture, so you can follow several interests in one place.
Markets are tied to real-world outcomes and recurring events, from weekly games to economic announcements.
To see the current lineup, browse the markets on Fanatics Markets, then open an individual contract to read its question and rules.
How It Compares With Other Platforms
Several other services also list event contracts. Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket became Major League Baseball’s official prediction market exchange in March 2026.
DraftKings and FanDuel, both known for sports products, have launched prediction markets of their own. FanDuel built FanDuel Predicts in partnership with CME Group.
These are factual differences, not rankings. Compare each service’s contract rules, fees, categories and state availability for the trade you have in mind.
The Regulatory Picture
Rules for sports event contracts were still developing as of October 23, 2026. On October 9, the CFTC proposed including event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather in the definition of a swap. It’s a proposal, not a final rule.
On October 8, the NFL filed a brief supporting New Jersey’s request for Supreme Court review of whether federal law overrides state rules on prediction markets. A coalition of about 40 states has backed the same request, and the Court has not yet agreed to hear the case.
Morton St. Trading Investments, LLC, doing business as Fanatics Markets, is a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member. Contracts are offered by Fanatics Markets through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America.
Registration doesn’t mean government endorsement or protection against losses.
Who Can Use It
You must be 21 or older, and access is limited to 22 states and four US territories. Check your own location against the current list before funding an account.
A Checklist Before You Trade
- Know what must happen for your side to pay and which record decides the result.
- Check the total cost, including fees, and work out your gain or loss before taxes.
- Plan for a case where no buyer appears before trading closes.
- Confirm you meet the age and location requirements.
- Set a spending limit and a time limit, and only risk what you can afford to lose in full.
Final Thoughts
Event contracts are simple at the core: a Yes-or-No question, a price and a $1 or $0 outcome. The details that matter most are the contract rules, the costs and whether you can exit when you want.
If you follow sports and want to track outcomes across several categories in one place, compare the platform’s contract rules, fees and availability with your needs. Read the contract terms first, and only trade amounts you’re prepared to lose.
FAQ
What is an event contract?
It’s a contract tied to whether a specific event happens. It settles at $1 if your side is correct and $0 if it isn’t.
Does a 60% price mean a 60% chance of winning?
Not exactly. It’s a quoted price that reflects market sentiment and includes the gap between buy and sell prices.
Can I sell before the event ends?
Yes, while trading is open and another participant is willing to buy at your price.
What fees apply?
A trading fee of $0.00034 to $0.02 per contract on each contract bought and sold, under the fee schedule effective September 2, 2026.
Who is eligible?
People aged 21 or older in the 22 states and four US territories where the platform is available.
Can I lose my whole stake?
Yes. If your side is incorrect at settlement, the position settles at $0.
